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Archive for June, 2015

On two continents, over three weeks in June, STORM CAT continues to exercise his influence over the development of the thoroughbred and horse racing history.

This tapestry of STORM CAT and owner-breeder William T. Young, The Master of Overbrook Farm, hangs in

This tapestry of STORM CAT and owner-breeder William T. Young, “The Master of Overbrook Farm,” hangs in the University of Kentucky library.

Breeding a champion takes a long time. And it’s inconvenient in the 21st century, when our concept of time is so different, thanks to things like the social media. In a world where Twitter pumps out race results one second (literally) after the horses cross the finish line, the prospect of waiting thirty years to get another Frankel or thirty-seven years to get the next American Triple Crown winner isn’t all that appealing.

But another way of looking at this is to realize that any thoroughbred is a work much like the tapestry of Storm Cat and owner-breeder William T. Young that hangs in the University of Kentucky library in Lexington, Kentucky. A thoroughbred is textured of many threads — and many life stories — coming down to us through time.

If we appreciated this, we could reform how we manage the Earth and all of her creatures. And, as though to encourage us, Storm Cat’s “thread” hovered over the 2015 Triple Crown and, across the Atlantic in England, over the pomp of Royal Ascot 2015.

William T. Young’s great stallion died in 2013, at the age of 30, leaving in his slipstream a gallery of champion colts and fillies, and stallions whose progeny continue to contribute to Storm Cat’s legacy — and to the survival of the Bold Ruler line. During his active years as a stallion, Storm Cat sired a bevy of runners who excelled as two year-olds and favoured a distance of 7f. Among his best were Kentucky Oaks winner Sardula, Harlan (sire of the excellent stallion Harlan’s Holiday), Hennessy (sire of the brilliant Johannesburg), the champion After Market (now standing in Turkey), 2005 Sovereign Award Winner Ambitious Cat, the leading miler and Coolmore champion, Black Minnaloushe and millionaire Bluegrass Cat, the dam of champion Sky Mesa, himself a successful sire.

Other excellent prodigy include Caress, BC Classic winner Cat Thief, champions Catinca and Sweet Catomine, Desert Stormer, Courageous Cat, Good Reward, Coolmore’s Hold That Tiger, BC Distaff winner, Mountain Cat, Juddmonte’s Nebraska Tornado, Newfoundland, One Cool Cat, millionaire Raging Fever, Japanese multimillionaire, Seeking The Dia, the fabulous filly, Sharp Cat, BC Juvenile Fillies & Eclipse award winner, Stormflagflying, Vision and Verse, champion Tabasco Cat and the 2009 BC Distaff winner, Life Is Sweet (below,winning the BC Distaff in 2009 for owner M. Wygood and trainer, John Shirreffs).

Storm Cat’s record of great thoroughbreds of both sexes was absolutely stunning during his lifetime. Arguably the best of all his progeny was Ireland’s Giant’s Causeway, “The Iron Horse,” who gave Storm Cat a classic runner, one of the few he produced during his stud career. As a sire, Giant’s Causeway is well on his way to becoming a sire of sires, notably through sons like Shamardal and Footstepsinthesand. Other European runners of classic lines include the aforementioned filly, November Snow, and Black Minnaloushe.

A delighted George Duffield rides in the Coral-Eclipse winner, GIANT'S CAUSEWAY, after the colt's gutsy win over KALANISI. The only other horse to have won the St. James's Palace and Coral-Eclipse in the same year was CORONACH, in 1926.

A delighted George Duffield rides in the Coral-Eclipse winner, GIANT’S CAUSEWAY, after the colt’s gutsy win over KALANISI. The only other horse to have won the St. James’s Palace and Coral-Eclipse in the same year was CORONACH, in 1926.

 

As a BM sire, Storm Cat was equally successful. In 2012, a year before his death, Storm Cat was responsible for, among others: Japan’s King Kanaloa (King Kamehameha ex. Lady Blossom) and Shonan Mighty (Manhattan Cafe ex. Luxury); Arkansas Derby winner and millionaire, Bodemeister (Empire Maker ex. Untouched Talent); champion Love And Pride (A.P. Indy ex. Ile de France); champion In Lingerie (Empire Maker ex. Cat Chat); Grade 2 winner City To City (City Zip ex. Stormbow) and Noble Tune, winner of $321,000 USD (Unbridled’s Song ex. Serena’s Cat). Of course, Storm Cat’s contribution to thoroughbred bloodlines as a BM sire was not confined to his 2014 record. His appearance in the first 5 generations of some exceptional individuals in their tail female bespeaks a lasting influence on the breed, both in North America and the United Kingdom, with a smattering (for the moment) in the Southern Hemisphere.

IN LINGERIE with her 2014 FRANKEL filly. The mare's BM sire is STORM CAT.

IN LINGERIE with her 2014 FRANKEL filly. The champion mare’s BM sire is STORM CAT.

A dark bay, Storm Cat was bred in the purple: his sire was Storm Bird, a champion juvenile and son of Northern Dancer and the New Providence (Bull Page) mare, South Ocean. His dam was Terlingua, a champion filly and daughter of the 1973 American Triple Crown winner, Secretariat. In the minds of those who knew Storm Cat’s female family best, like trainer D. Wayne Lukas, he was his mother’s son through and through, as were many of his offspring. According to Lukas, an American Hall of Fame trainer, the Storm Cats “… walk like her, they look like her and they have her attitude…the influence of the {dam} there was very strong.”

TERLINGUA (SECRETARIAT ex CRIMSON SAINT) during her racing career.

TERLINGUA (SECRETARIAT ex CRIMSON SAINT) during her racing career.

Storm Cat and jockey Chris McCarron win the 1985 Young America Stakes (Grade I) at Meadowlands on October 10, 1985. Photo by: Jim Raftery / Turfoto (Track Photographer)

Storm Cat and jockey Chris McCarron win the 1985 Young America Stakes (Grade I) at Meadowlands on October 10, 1985. Photo and copyright: Jim Raftery / Turfoto (Track Photographer)

 

 

And this led, in turn, to analysts making the connection between Terlingua’s precocity as a two year-old, together with her sprinter-type profile (Crimson Saint, Terlingua’s dam, was a champion speedster) and Storm Cat progeny, many of whom fell into this performance category. The time was ripe for thoroughbreds with a speed bias — and the market loved it.

So gentle was Storm Bird, that even the very young were allowed to visit him. He endeared himself to the whole O'Brien family. Then, in early in 1981, the colt sufferred an ugly assault at Ballydoyle. A disgruntled employee got into his stall and slashed off his mane and tale. Although Storm Bird appeared to recover, everything went wrong in his 3 year-old season. A brilliant career had ended.

So gentle was Storm Bird, that even the very young were allowed to visit him. He endeared himself to the whole (Vincent) O’Brien family. Then, early in 1981, the colt sufferred an ugly assault at Ballydoyle. A disgruntled employee got into his stall and slashed off his mane and tail. Although Storm Bird appeared to recover, everything went wrong in his 3 year-old season. A brilliant career had ended. (Photo and copyright, Jacqueline O’Brien)

TERLINGUA at Ashford in the Lockridge-      years with her very first foal, a filly by LYPHARD, who

TERLINGUA at Ashford in the Lockridge- Hefner years with her very first foal, a 1982 filly by LYPHARD, who was named LYPHARD’S DANCER. (Credit: Thoroughbred Times)

But Storm Cat’s sire, Storm Bird, had been a stellar two year-old himself and would likely have continued into his three year-old season had it not been for a series of unfortunate events, one of which had an absolutely devastating effect on the colt’s state-of-mind. In the late winter months of 1981 a disgruntled (Vincent) O’Brien employee broke into the gentle Storm Bird’s stall and hacked off his mane and tail before being apprehended. Ballydoyle, who had Storm Bird insured for 15 million (USD) was understandably quiet about the attack, saying only that there were no career-ending injuries. But Storm Bird, known for his sweetness and his kind eye around the stable, was never quite the same again. Hampered by physical injuries, he was retired to stand at Ashford Stud, then owned by Dr. William Lockridge and Robert Hefner. Ironically, it was Lockridge who bred Crimson Saint, the dam of Terlingua and grandam of Storm Cat, and it was Lockridge’s relationship with William T. Young, Sr., with whom he owned Terlingua in partnership, that led to her being sent to Storm Bird. (When bankruptcy plagued Lockride, Young bought a group of mares from him, including Terlingua and another Secretariat mare, Cinegita, who was bred to Storm Bird to produce Starlet Storm, the dam of champion Flanders. Shortly thereafter, Ashford was acquired by John Magnier and company as part of a settlement Lockridge and Hefner made to cover their outstanding debt on the purchase of Storm Bird.)

The Storm Bird influence is one that had the potential to mitigate against Storm Cat producing only short distance runners. And that potential might well be exerting itself from two or three generations back, in the pedigree of contemporary thoroughbred champions who happily get at least a mile over the dirt or turf.

Below is footage of the two year-old Storm Bird winning the Dewhurst Stakes from To-Agori-Mou and Miswaki, two colts who were champions of the turf.. His performance set the press buzzing, and Storm Bird was a prohibitive Epsom Derby favourite well before his anticipated debut as a three year-old:

 

STORM CAT runs in his paddock at Overbrook Farm.

STORM CAT runs in his paddock at Overbrook Farm.

So it comes as little surprise that, through sons and daughters and their progeny, the lasting influence of Storm Cat was profoundly felt over three weeks in June of this year, when America received her much-anticipated Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah, and Royal Ascot saw brilliant performances by a number of outstanding colts and fillies. And even though Storm Cat represents only a thread in the pedigree weave of these champions, none would have come into being without him. Their collective performances further attest to this amazing stallion’s resiliency and to his rightful place in thoroughbred racing history.

American Pharoah, a son of Pioneerof the Nile by Empire Maker out of the mare Littleprincessemma, a daughter of Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat, gave North America the racing highlight of the year when he swept to the finish line in the Belmont Stakes to become America’s twelfth Triple Crown winner — after a wait of 37 years.

As though this wasn’t enough, Storm Cat’s name was as prominent as Galileo’s in the pedigrees of several of the most stunning winners at Royal Ascot this year. In addition, Storm Cat mares have proved a very good match with Galileo, as seen in two of the colts below, Gleneagles and Aloft, as well as the filly Ballydoyle, who ran a blinder against Suits For You in the Chesam Stakes. Too, previous good performers like Misty For Me have Storm Cat as their BM sire. The Galileo-Storm Cat nick has been particularly lucrative for Coolmore, attesting to the fact that Storm Cat can get excellent turf runners too.

Storm Cats at Royal Ascot 2015 put in some sterling performances:

TUESDAY, June 16

Gleneagles, the stunning winner of the St. James Palace Stakes who broke the mighty Frankel’s existing track record, is by Galileo out of You’resothrilling, a Storm Cat daughter, and full sister to Giant’s Causeway:

WEDNESDAY, June 17

Coolmore’s Acapulco, a 2 year-old filly brilliantly trained by Wesley Ward, won the G2 Queen Mary Stakes. She is a daughter of Scat Daddy (Johannesburg), placing Storm Cat in her 4th generation:

In the next race that day, Amazing Maria, ridden by James Doyle and taking on champions Integral and Rizeena, won the Duke of Cambridge Stakes convincingly. The pedigree of the 4 year-old daughter of Mastercraftsman features Tale of the Cat, a son of Storm Cat, as her BM sire:

THURSDAY, June 18

On Thursday, it was 3 year-old War Envoy, whose dam is a granddaughter of Storm Cat, who took the Britannia Stakes.

The 3 year-old WAR ENVOY scoots home for Coolmore under Ryan Moore to win the Britannia Stakes on Thursday, June 18 at Royal Ascot.

The 3 year-old WAR ENVOY scoots home for Coolmore under Ryan Moore to win the Britannia Stakes on Thursday, June 18 at Royal Ascot.

FRIDAY, June 19

Storm Cat kicked off more trips to the winner’s circle with Balios in the King Edward VII (G2). Balios is a son of Shamardal by Giant’s Causeway and Storm Cat appears in his sire line in the 3rd generation.

BALIOS with Jamie Spencer in the irons, sweeps home a winner in the King Edward VII at Ascot on June 19.

BALIOS with Jamie Spencer in the irons, sweeps home a winner in the King Edward VII at Ascot on June 19.

Aloft, a Galileo colt out of Dietrich, by Storm Cat, wins the Queen’s Vase and gives Ryan Moore, aka “Magic Moore,” a 9th win that confirms him as the winningest jockey ever at a Royal Ascot meet.

ALOFT surges to the wire to win the Queen's Vase and give his jockey, Ryan Moore, the record for most wins in any Royal Ascot meeting, ahead of the likes of the great Lester Piggott.

ALOFT surges to the wire to win the Queen’s Vase and give his jockey, Ryan Moore, the modern record for most wins in any Royal Ascot meeting, ahead of the likes of the great Lester Piggott and Pat Eddery. In 1878, the legendary Fred Archer got a dozen wins at that year’s Royal Ascot.

SATURDAY, June 20

Crack 2 year-old filly Ballydoyle didn’t win the Chesham Stakes but she came close enough that the stewards’ needed to take a long, hard look at the footage of the race. A daughter of Galileo, the young Ballydoyle’s BM sire is Storm Cat. Bumped badly near the finish and running against colts, she still got up to make all, narrowly missing the win by a short nose.

Coming to the wire, BALLYDOYLE chases home SUITS YOU.

Coming to the wire, BALLYDOYLE (#8) chases home SUITS YOU.

How close was it? SUITS YOU (outside) and BALLYDOYLE (Inside near stands) at the wire.

How close was it? SUITS YOU (outside) and BALLYDOYLE (inside, near the stands) at the wire.

 

This is one article that doesn’t require an epilogue, because Storm Cat’s story isn’t done.

We can look forward to more threads in more pedigrees as time goes on.

Because that’s how great thoroughbreds are made.

This beautiful 2014 Frankel colt is out of India, a winning granddaughter of Storm Cat. With descendants like these, the future looks to be bright for Storm Cat.

This beautiful 2014 Frankel colt is out of India, a winning granddaughter of Storm Cat. With descendants like these, the future is filled with hopes and dreams that honour the memory of Storm Cat, and the Bold Ruler sire line in his safe-keeping.

 

BONUS FEATURES

1) Two year-old Storm Cat goes up against some other very good colts to win the 1985 Young America Stakes:

2) Storm Cat’s son, the incomparable Giant’s Causeway (running on dirt for the first time under Mick Kinane/#14), makes a courageous run at Tiznow in the BC Classic — and just misses by a nose:

3) Short documentary on Terlingua, with cameos of Storm Cat:

4) TOO CUTE! Trainer John Shirreffs tries to wake up Storm Cat’s daughter, Life Is Sweet, to “go to work”:

5) Multimillionaire Seeking the Dia (Japan):

 

NOTE: THE VAULT is a non-profit website. (Any advertising that appears on THE VAULT is placed there by WordPress and the profit, if any, goes to WordPress.) We make every effort to honour copyright for the photographs used in our articles. It is not our policy to use the property of any photographer without his/her permission, although the task of sourcing photographs is hugely compromised by the social media, where many photographs prove impossible to trace. Please do not hesitate to contact THE VAULT regarding any copyright concerns. Thank you.

 

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We’ve been here many, many times before and this year it’s all about American Pharoah, whose misspelled name has only made his wins in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness more distinctive.

The delight and the doubts have dominated the press in North America since Zayat Stables’ American Pharoah began his Triple Crown bid, first by winning the Kentucky Derby and then by romping to a Preakness victory in the slop, winning by a margin only equalled by Smarty Jones 11 1/4 victory in the 2004 Preakness (above).

But then came the Belmont…..and the undefeated Smarty, who had won every heart along the way, suffered his first — and only — career defeat. To say that it was a heartbreaker would be an understatement.

It’s 2015, and here we go again.

And what can be studied to ascertain whether or not American Pharoah’s (AP) chances in a dwindling field are better than that of a champion like the great Smarty Jones? Truthfully, no analysis can be foolproof which is one of the reasons that horse racing worldwide still brims with anticipation, hope and dreams of glory.

There are a number of complex factors that will determine the outcome on June 6th and how they interrelate is where the mystery lies.

First, there is the colt himself — how tired is AP? After all, as E. P. Taylor who owned and bred Northern Dancer observed, ” If you run them enough times, they get beaten…A horse can’t tell you how he’s feeling…” And the “fatigue factor” would arguably be less relevant if the Derby and Preakness winner was going up against colts who had run in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. But he isn’t. In the Belmont, he’ll meet up with colts who are fresher, who’ve had time to rest and work up to the Belmont. AP’s had three weeks.

AMERICAN PHAROAH shown after his Preakness win.

AMERICAN PHAROAH shown after his Preakness win.

 

Then there are the bloodlines and what these might cough up in terms of indicators. AP’s bloodlines are superb on his sire line. In fact his grandsire, Empire Maker, trained by the legendary Bobby Frankel, was himself the spoiler when he won the 2003 Belmont to quash Funny Cide’s Triple Crown bid:

Empire Maker had been beaten by Funny Cide in the Derby that year, but skipped the Preakness before running in the Belmont. He was a fresher colt going in, but it’s impossible to overlook his bloodlines: Unbridled (Mr. Prospector sire line) out of the fabulous mare, Toussaud, by El Gran Señor (Northern Dancer). And Empire Maker, who stands in Japan now, has thrown a hailstorm of champions from his American foal crops, including AP’s sire, Pioneerof the Nile, Eclipse champion (2011-2013) Royal Delta and champions Sky Kingdom, In Lingerie, Grace Hall, Emollient, Bodemeister and Acomas. Pioneerof the Nile looks to be on his way to following in Empire Maker’s steps, but it’s still too early to be certain. Often, though, it takes a generation for a sire or a dam to produce a superstar like AP, win or lose on June 6. And Empire Maker has the goods to do it.

The handsome and prepotent EMPIRE MAKER.

The handsome and prepotent EMPIRE MAKER.

Of course, AP is not the only colt going into the Belmont with a great pedigree. There is the sensational Mubtaahij, who appears to like the Belmont surface and is by the hot sire, Dubawi, out of Pennegal by Pennekamp, himself a sire who showed brilliance on the turf — winning the 2000 Guineas, Prix de la Salamandre, Dewhurst and Prix Djebel, among 6 of 7 lifetime victories. If our “might skip a generation” breeding axiom kicks in here, then Mubtaahij is doubly-blessed. His dam is a Blue Hen in her own right — and let’s keep in mind that it’s the dam that hands on the powerful X in Mubtaahij’s genetic profile.

MUBTAAHIJ working at Belmont. Photograph and copyright, Emily Gricco.

MUBTAAHIJ working at Belmont. Photograph and copyright, Emily Gricco.

 

Another serious contender in the Belmont is Frosted. He’s by America’s arguably best sire, Tapit (AP Indy) out of a Deputy Minister mare, Fast Cookie. What’s interesting about Frosted is that he carries Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew on both sides of his fourth generation. And that can’t be bad. Other strong pedigrees are found in Materiality (his sire is Preakness & Belmont Stakes winner, Afleet Alex/BM sire, Langfuhr) and Keen Ice, a son of the mighty Curlin, who certainly will get the distance.

The gorgeous FROSTED has the pedigree to match. Photo and copyright, Emily Gricco.

The gorgeous FROSTED has the pedigree to match. Photo and copyright, Emily Gricco.

KEEN ICE at work over the Belmont track. Photo and copyright, Emily Gricco.

KEEN ICE at work over the Belmont track. A son of the mighty CURLIN, he has what it takes to get the distance. Photo and copyright, Emily Gricco.

 

A factor that looms large is that of the jockeys.

AP keeps his regular rider, Victor Espinoza, who is no stranger to pressure. He rode the last Triple Crown hopeful, California Chrome, in the 2014 Belmont where the colt finished out of the money, overtaken by much fresher horses. In 2002, Espinoza was astride the Baffert-trained War Emblem, but the colt stumbled coming out of the gate and never really recovered. So Espinoza knows the hype and knows the track; hopefully, he’ll ride at least one race on June 6th prior to the Belmont to get the feel of the track.

Mubtaahij will be missing his regular rider, Christophe Soumillon, and some are speculating that Soumillon’s decision to drop the ride (because of a previous commitment) speaks loud about the colt’s Belmont chances. However, the talented son of Dubawi gets the services of talented Irad Ortiz Jr. Ortiz has won a Breeders’ Cup and knows the Belmont track. Kent Desormeaux and Joel Rosario ride Keen Ice and Frosted, respectively, and both can be counted on to come up with sound performances. The great Mike Smith rides the Nick Zito-trained Frammento and these two are a formidable combination: over the years, American racing fans have learned to never count Zito out.

One of the very best: trainer Nick Zito brings FRAMMENTO into the Belmont.

One of the very best: trainer Nick Zito brings FRAMMENTO into the Belmont.

 

Then there’s the matter of the track itself. Although Saratoga has the reputation of being “the graveyard of champions,” in North America every true racing fan knows that the real graveyard is the Belmont, aka “Big Sandy.” To quote the pre-eminent correspondent of American racing, Steve Haskin, writing in Blood-Horse on June 1:

“…the fact is, many jockeys who don’t have experience at Belmont Park, especially going 1 1/2 miles, get lost on those sweeping turns, with the far turn being what I call the turn of no return. Once you make a mistake on that turn, especially going that far, there is no recovering from it.

Of course, there are exceptions to every rule, but you do not want to get caught wide on the first turn and you certainly don’t want to go into the second turn wide. At Belmont, the ideal trip is to remain closer to the rail (if it is playing fair), then ease out nearing the quarter pole or waiting for an opening on the inside. Going wide at the five-sixteenths pole or quarter pole is not a big deal. It is going into the turn wide that leaves horses rubber-legged after turning for home, as they are forced to lose ground for a very long time while negotiating that seemingly endless turn.

…As far as staying on the rail, that is going to be up to Bob Baffert. The great John Nerud has always said the key to Belmont is knowing the track on that day and watch how the track is maintained the days leading up to the race. And he’ll be able to tell by watching all the races run on that Friday and of course on Saturday. According to Nerud, it all depends on what the crew does with the cushion. If they remove a good part of the cushion on the inside and dump it 20-25 feet out from the rail, you want to get on that rail and stay there, especially from the five-sixteenths pole to the eighth pole.. If they leave the cushion alone, because of the pitch of the track, it likely will be slower down on the inside.”

(See more at: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2015/06/01/memo-to-victor-don-t-let-belmont-park-beat-you.aspx#sthash.q752Ur2V.dpuf)

belmont park_tc

 

Last, but not least, is the matter of statistics, those supposedly factual indicators of what a colt has got, pedigree-wise, and therefore, what he should do in a classic, 1.5 mile/12f race like the Belmont Stakes.

To help those new to the business of handicapping, we need to stress that both the Dosage Index (DI) and Centre of Distribution (CD) of any thoroughbred are, in actuality, trends used by breeders more than “facts” per se. What we mean by this is that both DI and CD are attempts to consolidate pedigree information along the lines of stamina and speed influences. The CD and DI of a thoroughbred are tied to the influences of chef-de-race stallions found in a horse’s pedigree over the first 4 generations.

But influences are just that and no more than that — even the great Secretariat’s speed-stamina profile (20-14-7-9-0) did not quite capture what he showed us on the track!

A thoroughbred’s Dosage Profile (DP), from which its DI and CD derive, is calculated based on the number of stamina-speed sire influences in a pedigree. There are five categories: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional, with “Brilliant” denoting a preference for shorter distances (speed influence) and “Professional,” longer distances (stamina influence). Horses classified as “Classic” have an almost-equal speed-stamina ratio. The numbers assigned in all 5 categories (even if 1 or more are 0) constitute the DP. Then, through a numerical ponderation formula, the DI and CD are calculated and they indicate a trend represented by a ratio of stamina-to-speed influences that may (or may not) indicate the conditions under which a horse does best. The higher the DI or CD, the greater the speed influence.

(In fact, when we look at the CD’s of the 11 Triple Crown winners, we see just how misleading this kind of information can be if used as the sole criteria for picking a Triple Crown winner: Sir Barton @ 1.00, Gallant Fox @ 0.57, Omaha @ 0.75, War Admiral @ 0.52, Count Fleet @ 0.25, Whirlaway @ 0.10, Assault @ 0.46, Citation @ 0.04, Secretariat @ 0.90, Seattle Slew @ 0.68 and Affirmed @ 0.55. Then add, for good measure, Man O’ War @ 1.17, Alydar @ 1.10, Little Current @ 0.22 or the fabulous Smarty Jones @ 1.00 and one sees that while the CD is a useful indicator of the ratio of speed-to-stamina in an individual’s pedigree, it can also prove very dodgy for punters!)

AP comes in with a CD of 0.88, meaning that his speed influence is presumably more dominant than stamina; Mubtaahij has a CD of 0.00, showing a distinct speed-stamina imbalance that should favour stamina over speed. At 0.64, Keen Ice shows a relatively balanced speed-stamina influence; and Frosted shows a CD of 0.67. The average CD for 12 furlongs (the distance of the Belmont Stakes) is 0.43. And this is where the worm-hole that can be statistics opens up: none of the colts mentioned here compare favourably with the ideal of 0.43. But why is that? Probably because they’re babies with limited races under their belts, making it hard to assess them against a statistic that takes no account of the number of races those individuals used to reach this statistic had run.

Too, we would note that in comparing the respective DP’s of Frosted, Keen Ice, Mubtaahij and AP, the two with the most speed-stamina balance and therefore, using this theory, the most inherited Classic potential are Frosted and Keen Ice. But, again, what’s missing is the time it might take any of these youngsters to reach their Classic potential.

American Pharoah shown working at Churchill Downs pre-Belmont Stakes.

American Pharoah shown working at Churchill Downs shortly before he shipped to Belmont.

So….can American Pharoah, a brilliant colt at both two and three, give America its first Triple Crown winner since 1978? Having watched him through this year and last, we know that one thing is certain: he will do his best on June 6th. That’s the kind of honest, hard-working colt he is and it’s doubtful he knows any other way of being.

But the result on June 6th? There are no absolutes.

If the factors align for colt and jockey — from how the track plays to fatigue vs. freshness to what’s bred in the bone — then, when the gates spread and Big Sandy opens its arms, welcome all of these equine athletes….and the possibility of a Triple Crown champion.

AMERICAN PHAROAH with HOF trainer, Bob Baffert who says of his champion, "He is just the sweetest horse." Photo and copyright, Emily Gricco.

AMERICAN PHAROAH with HOF trainer, Bob Baffert who says of his champion, “He is just the sweetest horse.” Photo and copyright, Emily Gricco.

 

SPECIAL THANKS

…to gifted photographer, Emily Gricco, who generously gave THE VAULT permission for the use of her images of the Belmont contenders. If you love great photography, catch Emily on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.

 

NOTE: THE VAULT is a non-profit website. (Any advertising that appears on THE VAULT is placed there by WordPress and the profit, if any, goes to WordPress.) We make every effort to honour copyright for the photographs used in our articles. It is not our policy to use the property of any photographer without his/her permission, although the task of sourcing photographs is hugely compromised by the social media, where many photographs prove impossible to trace. Please do not hesitate to contact THE VAULT regarding any copyright concerns. Thank you.

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